The Nigerian economy is estimated to have expanded by approximately 3.7% in the first half of 2025, fueled by improved business conditions and a rise in crude oil production. This information was revealed in a report from the Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and released on Tuesday.
Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research for West Africa at the bank, noted that the projected 3.7% year-on-year GDP growth aligns with the anticipated annual growth rate of 3.5%. He stated, “Data from the monthly PMIs and crude oil production figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission indicate an economy that grew by an estimated 3.7% year-on-year in H1 2025, bolstered by increased crude oil output and growth in the manufacturing and services sectors, while agriculture continues to fall short of its long-term average growth rate of 3.6%.”
This report coincides with the World Bank’s reaffirmation of its forecast for Nigeria’s economy to grow by 3.6% in 2025, an increase from the 3.4% recorded in 2024, despite changes in global trade dynamics. However, the World Bank’s projection is lower than the Central Bank of Nigeria’s estimate of 4.17% and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group’s ambitious forecast of 5.5% GDP growth made in January.
In May, Nigeria’s inflation rate decreased to 22.97%, while the interest rate remained at 27.50%. Oni commented, “With inflation expected to be lower than the 2024 average, we anticipate a reduction in interest rates this year and next; we expect a rate cut of 150–200 basis points in 2025 and a further 200–250 basis points in 2026.”
